Global politics is witnessing a realignment as India, Russia, China, and the U.S. navigate a new phase of competition and cooperation. Former U.S. President Donald Trump recently sparked debate with his sharp remarks:
“Looks like we’ve lost India and Russia to deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”
The comment, posted on his platform Truth Social, came shortly after the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, where Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared side by side. This visual was enough to unsettle Washington, and Trump’s words captured the anxiety within American strategic circles.
U.S.–India Relations Under Pressure
- Russian Oil Imports: Despite Western sanctions, India has emerged as one of Russia’s top crude oil buyers, often at discounted prices. This has helped India curb inflation and stabilize its trade deficit but has irked Washington.
- Tariff Disputes: Trump himself admitted the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods (25% base tariff + 25% additional tariff), a move that strained trade relations further.
- Strategic Autonomy: India continues to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy, refusing to align completely with any bloc. For the U.S., this autonomy sometimes appears like drift towards Moscow and Beijing.
Russia–India Partnership: Energy at the Core
- India and Russia share a decades-old relationship rooted in defense, energy, and political trust.
- Oil Trade Surge: Since 2022, India’s crude imports from Russia have jumped more than 20-fold, making Moscow India’s top supplier.
- Financial Advantage: These imports—often settled in rupees or through alternative payment systems—save India billions in foreign exchange outflow.
- Defense Dependency: Nearly 60% of India’s military equipment remains of Russian origin, sustaining long-term dependence.
- This partnership provides India a financial cushion against global volatility but simultaneously places New Delhi in the crosshairs of U.S. pressure.
China’s Expanding Influence
- China’s role in this equation cannot be ignored:
- SCO Platform: Through SCO, Beijing positions itself as a convener of Asian powers, subtly countering Western dominance.
- Economic Pull: China’s Belt and Road Initiative continues to attract developing nations with infrastructure investments.
- Financial Muscle: With the world’s second-largest economy and growing influence in global supply chains, China provides both opportunities and risks for India and Russia.
- For the U.S., the imagery of India and Russia engaging with China symbolically at SCO heightens fears of a new financial bloc forming outside Western institutions like the IMF and World Bank.
Trump’s Remarks: Fear or Reality?
- While Trump later softened his statement, clarifying that he “gets along very well” with Modi, his disappointment over India’s oil deals with Russia was evident. From a financial lens, his frustration is clear:
- Trade Balance Pressure: The U.S. already runs a significant trade deficit with India. Tariffs have done little to reduce it.
- Shift in Energy Economics: Every barrel of discounted Russian oil India buys indirectly weakens Western sanctions and strengthens Moscow’s war chest.
- New Payment Mechanisms: With India exploring rupee-based settlements and alternative currency trade with Russia and China, the U.S. dollar’s dominance faces subtle but growing challenges.
India’s Central Role: A Balancing Power
- India today stands as a swing state in global geopolitics. With the U.S., India collaborates on technology, semiconductors, and defense (e.g., GE jet engine deals, Quad partnership). With Russia, it secures affordable energy and defense hardware. With China, despite border disputes, India engages on multilateral platforms like SCO and BRICS to avoid isolation in Asia.
- Financially, India’s diversified approach lowers risk, strengthens its bargaining power, and aligns with its ambition to become a $5 trillion economy in the near future.
Trump’s statement that the U.S. has “lost” India and Russia to China may be an exaggeration, but it highlights America’s concern over shifting global financial and strategic equations. India’s independent approach means it is unlikely to be “lost” to any single camp. Instead, New Delhi is leveraging all sides—cheap Russian oil, U.S. technology, and multilateral forums with China—to advance its own national and financial interests. For Washington, the challenge is clear: maintain India as a partner without forcing choices that could push it further towards Moscow and Beijing. For India, the game is about balance—ensuring that geopolitical flexibility translates into economic strength in the decades to come.
